The UMass Minutemen travel to Muncie, Indiana this week, the home of both Jerry Gergich’s timeshare and the Ball State Cardinals, and they need a win in the worst way.
UMass’ season (1-6, 0-3 MAC) is a far cry from where many fans, myself included, thought this team would be at this point in 2015. They’ve lost games in new and interesting ways, in heartbreaking ways, in embarrassing ways, and even in depressing ways. But despite all of that they are miraculously still mathematically in contention to be bowl-eligible with five games remaining on their slate.
UMass also benefits from the fact that all five of their remaining games come against the very bottom half of the MAC. If UMass were the team we expected them to be, they would be favored in every one of these match-ups. But as they are not, all these games will likely be very close and the only thing any of us can say for certain is that we have NO IDEA how they will all play out.
The first of those five games comes at 1pm on Halloween against Ball State (2-6, 1-3 MAC) who are similarly struggling to find their way this season. They’re in the midst of a 5-game losing streak, and three of those games were at home. And while their record may not indicate it, they are not an easy out. They’ve played some good teams tough, including a 2-point loss to Central Michigan last week. They have also held both Northwestern and Toledo to 24 points apiece in losses (performing much better than UMass did against the Rockets).
The key for UMass this week is going to be a balanced offensive attack. Ball State’s defense can be exploited on the ground and through the air with the right plan. The passing game is likely where UMass is going to focus given their difficulty rushing but they should strive to do both. They were at their most effective against Toledo when they were making a effort to run the ball. Ball State’s opponents are averaging just under 300 yards/game passing (298.0 to be exact) and they have also given up over 200 yards rushing in four games. The last two weeks the rush defense has been much better (33 yards allowed to Georgia State, 118 to CMich) but they were burned in the air (412 yards allowed to GA St, 316 to CMich).
In the passing game Marken Michel is battling an injury and it’s unclear as of now if he’ll be ready to go for Saturday, but let’s hope he will. Even if he is, we need to see more from Shakur Nesmith and Rodney Mills on a consistent basis in order for UMass to succeed. They need to catch the balls thrown their way, and Frohnapfel needs to make sure that those passes are catchable. Tajae Sharpe CANNOT continue to do everything by himself.
We’re going to need to see a concerted effort from the skill positions on offense to get UMass a win this week. Frohnapfel needs to do a much better job reading the defense and finding his 2nd and 3rd options rather than forcing throws to his 1st read (often Sharpe) when it’s not there. He also needs to take care of the football. The interception he threw against Toledo was a killer in so many ways, but it was also one of the worst reads I’ve ever seen. All he could see was Tajae Sharpe despite the fact that he had a wide open, uncovered receiver on the play. He’s clearly missing Jean Sifrin (the whole team is) but he’s got to do a better job getting his other weapons involved. Make better throws and take care of the ball, because UMass will not win if Frohnapfel is turning it over and terrible times.
UMass’ running attack has been inconsistent this season, and while more balance is absolutely needed in the offense, losing Sekai Lindsay to a season-ending ankle injury will slow down the ground game slightly. I’d love to see what Marquis Young could do as a featured back for an entire game, but apparently Mark Whipple is not as keen to see what the true freshman can do as the primary.
Young is easily the most explosive back UMass has, and he’s proven it this season. Instead of criticizing him to the media, perhaps Whip might work on coaching him up? Maybe get rid of some of the kinks that cause him to “lose his mind” in the hurry-up? That seems like it would be far more productive. Also, and this is just my opinion, but it wouldn’t kill Whip to NOT USE THE HURRY-UP SO OFTEN. Especially not after the defense has just been on the field for an extended period. Going 3-and-out in 60 seconds of game time is hurting every facet of your team. Pro-style offenses aren’t supposed to be in hurry-up that often.
In light of those comments you can expect to see Jamal Wilson get his share of plays on Saturday. Wilson is a decent player, but he’s the team’s best pass-blocking back and receiver out of the backfield, so he gets a lot of the snaps. Apparently we may see some of Shadrach Abrokwah this week as well, the former walk-on not having played since fumbling in the Colorado game.
Shad is a great story, though I’m not too sure how much we’ll actually see of him. On the plus side he’s fresh, he hasn’t played in a game in a month and a half. On the other hand he’s rusty, he hasn’t played a game in a month and a half. My personal preference (aside from letting Young be the guy) would be to give Lorenzo Woodley a run out but I don’t know if that poor kid will ever find a way out of the doghouse.
Defensively UMass is going to have to stop Riley Neal. Neal took over as Ball State’s QB in their 2nd game of the season and hasn’t looked back. He’s a true freshman with a strong skill set, and he can run if he needs to. Running QBs have been the bane of UMass’ existence the last several seasons, and while Neal isn’t a run-first player, he can make plays with his legs. He can also make plays with his arm, as he’s gone 156/260 for 1522 yards and 11 TDs against only 2 INTs in seven games. Impressive numbers for a true freshman, especially one who wasn’t the starter when camp broke.
Getting pressure and disrupting Neal’s comfort level is going to be key. UMass has had problems generating pressure all season long. Against this Ball State team it’s going to be crucial that they figure out a way to get to Neal and make him move where he doesn’t want to and punish him when they get the chance. In UMass’ lone win against Florida International they did a good job disrupting Alex McGeough and as a result won the game. We need more of that. Trey Seals has been banged up and may not play, which would hurt their ability to get pressure, but we still have Da’Sean Downey, Kassan Messiah, Sha-Ki Holines, and Peter Angeh who need to be more effective, along with Jovan Santos-Knox and Shane Huber.
This is a big week for defensive coordinator Tom Masella to see if he can both come up with a plan that contributes to UMass winning a football game and to see if he can adjust to what Ball State changes once the 2nd half begins. I don’t think much of Masella or his ability to run a defense but this should be a pretty simple game plan this week. Ball State is a team that UMass can absolutely beat, and they have to contain them.
Ball State’s head coach Pete Lembo acknowledged his team has seen a lot of pressure and that they’ve had trouble dealing with it:
“We have seen an awful lot of pressure for a few reasons. One reason — a freshman quarterback. Recent opponents have not been hesitant to throw a lot at him. The second part is to outnumber us in the run box to make it much more difficult to gain yards on the ground.”
If there’s one guy who knows how to beat Ball State, it’s Ball State’s head coach. Pressuring Neal and forcing him to make mistakes is the way they can win this game.
Ball State currently sits as a 2.5-point favorite in this one, and since home teams almost always get a 3-point bump, the game is basically a pick ’em. Either team can win big or win close. Trying to pin down exactly what type of game we’ll see is near impossible at this stage. But both teams have a lot at stake.
As I’ve said they are both clubs that are looking at very disappointing records for what was supposed to be a much better season. They both need to win some games late in the year to gain some confidence, and above all else, they both know they cannot lose again if they want even a snowball’s chance to go to a bowl game this season. Once you hit seven losses, you’re done (unless you played at Hawaii but I’m not getting into that, you know what I mean…).
I never would have thought that UMass would be in this position, backed up against the wall with zero room for error the rest of the regular season if they want to experience the post-season, but they are. This is where we’re at. Maybe this is the kick the ass the team needs to sharpen up and play a full 60-minute game. It’s not how I would have drawn it up, but if it works, it works.
UMass needs to score early again and get out to a lead and keep it. That’s very do-able as Ball State has been outscored 169-94 in the first half of games this season. They also need to finally show that they can adjust at halftime, both in regards to their own play and to their opponents as well. They cannot allow another bad 2nd half of football ruin a winnable game for them again.
I’m willing to put some faith in the fact that UMass knows now that it literally cannot lose again if it wants a chance to be a bowl team. Now I will be honest I don’t think that will happen this season, not anymore, but they need to play like every game they have left is their last. If they do they give themselves a chance.
Give me the Minutemen in this one, UMass 35, Ball State 27.
Go U.
Fire The Musket 